Canada’s population growth climbed 3% in 2024, primarily through immigration, which has been good for the Canadian dairy industry and has helped the country maintain its highly protected and subsidized dairy industry, according to Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report. After years of exceptional gains, the rate of growth has slowed to a year-over-year increase of 0.9% for the first six months of the year to just shy of 41.6 million people. By comparison, the U.S. population grew by 0.98% in 2024 compared to 2023.
“Due primarily to an increasing population, Canadian dairy demand appears to be sufficient to absorb domestic milk production growth and accommodate more imports, and that’s good news for the U.S. and European dairy exporters,” Sharp said.
Canadian milk production reached an all-time high in the first half of the year, with output up 1.4% from 2024 volumes after adjusting for leap day, which means dairy producers are sending increasing volumes of milk to dairy processors. According to Statistics Canada, first-half deliveries were up 1% increase compared to the first six months of 2024. For the year, Canadian dairy processors expect to take in more than 7 million metric tons of milk this year, a record high.
“A growing population and greater demand for dairy have allowed Canada’s dairy sector to grow even as the historically insulated industry has been forced to open the door to more imports,” said Sharp. “While Canada has tried creative ways to import less dairy than agreed to in recent trade negotiations and dispute resolutions, Canada’s January through August imports of cheese and butter hit all-time highs.”
In the first nine months of 2025, butter imports outpaced 2024 volumes by an impressive 33%. The United States accounted for two-thirds of that total. For cheese, the United States supplied 36% of Canada’s imports, second only to the EU-27’s 50% share, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.
“While Canada remains a net exporter of skim milk powder, the positive trade balance has been shrinking,” Sharp noted. In August, Canada sent just 410,000 metric tons more skim milk powder abroad than it took in, the smallest monthly net exports since early 2016.
